Portfolio Signal Update
Signal:
- Recommended position: 100% Spot BTC
Executive Summary:
- Due to the market regime being one which is mean-reverting and oversold, it is highly unlikely that trend-based systems will give effective signals. DCA effectively complete. Waiting on positive liquidity momentum now.
Associated Data:
- SDCA condition = Accumulated
- SDCA leverage condition = Leverage impermissible
- RSPS dominant major = None/Cash
- RSPS confidence = N/A
@I Understand The Signals
For practical information related to the signals, please refer to this attached post:
Prof. Adam ~ Crypto Investing
01/30/2025(edited)
Failure to read and understand this post in its entirety will result in the loss of all your money.
UPDATED SIGNAL PRINCIPLES:
- Who is this portfolio best suited to?
-> Me. Professor Adam. This is a portfolio which is made by me, for me. I do not take into consideration anyone else's needs. If this makes you uncomfortable, then you must UNDERSTAND investing so you can better adjust your portfolio to your needs. Masterclass graduation is the excruciatingly lowest bare minimum standard.
- What approach am I deploying?
-> A hybrid SDCA & RSPS style on the majors.
- How does this method work?
->
Please refer to the attached post for strategy details
- What is Adam's portfolio composition?
-> About 98% majors, about 2% dedicated for memecoin experiments.
- Which tokens are you including?
-> The signals will be concerned mainly with BTC, ETH & SOL. Other large tokens will be considered on a case-by-case basis.
- Why didn't you include XYZ token?
-> I am only concerned with high quality majors.
- But I want your opinion on XYZ token!
-> You can go down the market cap ladder to infinity if you justify it to yourself. You can use the RSPS logic with any tokens you want. Complete the masterclass and get post-grad level 3 if you want to include DOGE, SUI, BNB, TRON, [insert any token] for yourself.
- What is the right split between these portfolio sections for me, the student?
-> The lessons give you a framework to figure this out for yourself. The objectively correct approach will be 'barbell': No more than 90% low risk and 10% high risk (leverage & memecoins will be a barbell within a barbell; i.e. 90% leverage and 10% memecoins within the 10% total portfolio allocated to 'high risk')
- What if I want to go higher risk than this?
-> Your splits must be adjusted to your understanding of the risks you're exposing yourself to. If you can comprehensively describe the very bizarre and often unexpected behavior of leveraged tokens, more than 10% might be permissible. If you're unable to do this, then clearly you are not capable of taking on more risk. Same goes for memecoins, do you have your own system? Think critically: Have I overcome enough of my own incompetence to justify excessive risk taking?
- What if I want to run isolated SDCA, RSPS, or SOPS system?
-> Then do it. You'll learn how to do this in the post-grad levels. Get it done.
- How much leverage is permissible for the leveraged tokens?
-> Current research indicates the following multiples are the maximum permissible under perfect circumstances: BTC 2x for BTC only, ETH & SOL are SPOT only. DO NOT EXCEED THESE VALUES.
- When running the RSPS, how much of the capital should go into the dominant major vs the second most dominant major for diversification?
-> Current research shows, surprisingly, that there is no diversification benefit. Therefore 100% of the capital should be allocated to the dominant major when bullish.
- How often should I rebalance?
-> This depends upon your desired portfolio behavior. If you're risk averse, you will rebalance often. If you're risk seeking you'll rebalance less. Think of the behavior you want to optimize for, i.e. highest sharpe/sortino ratio of portfolio behavior, this will demand a more/less frequent rebalancing strategy respectively. Don't understand what I just wrote? Lessons
- What if I still have questions and don't understand what's going on?
-> Have you completed the fucking masterclass yet or not? If you don't know what your doing, DON'T DO ANYTHING. Yes, that includes DONT BUY ANYTHING. Better for your ass to be sidelined than to be taking on risk in something your casual tourist ass doesn't understand. Seek understanding before you destroy yourself.
Clarification to any of the above can be made through
#｜A
